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Will Luminar Stock Continue To Decline?


Luminar, a company that develops lidar sensors for use in self-driving cars, has seen its stock decline by roughly 14% over the last week (five trading days). This compares to the S&P 500 which has remained roughly flat over the same period. The decline follows Luminar’s mixed Q3 2021 results, which saw its revenue fall slightly short of estimates, with EPS coming in line. However, financial results aren’t really important for Luminar at this point, as the company hasn’t commenced meaningful commercial operations just yet. Moreover, the company has actually been executing reasonably well with winning new customers and bolstering its order book. The company says that it is on track for 60% year-over-year growth of its forward-looking order book in 2021. Luminar also appears to be on track for the production of its low-cost, mass-market Iris sensors, with the company noting that development and tooling were both predominantly complete.

So, is LAZR stock likely to rise further in the coming weeks and months or is a correction looking more likely? Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, LAZR stock only has a 37% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis Luminar Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Five Days: LAZR -14%, vs. S&P 500 -0.2%; Underperformed market

(11% event probability)

  • Luminar stock declined -14% over a five-day trading period ending 11/23/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which remained roughly flat over the same period.
  • A change of -14% or more over five trading days has a 11% event probability, which has occurred 27 times out of 240 in the last year.

Ten Days: LAZR -11%, vs. S&P 500 0.2%; Underperformed market

(24% event probability)

  • Luminar stock declined -11% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which remained roughly flat.
  • A change of -11% or more over ten trading days has a 24% event probability, which has occurred 57 times out of 235 in the last year.

Twenty-One Days: LAZR 11%, vs. S&P 500 2.8%; Outperformed market

(12% event probability)

  • Luminar stock rose 11% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose by 2.8%
  • A change of 11% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 12% event probability, which has occurred 27 times out of 224 in the last year.

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[9/13/2021] What’s Happening With Luminar Stock?

Luminar, a company that develops lidar sensors for use in self-driving cars, has seen its stock decline by about 6% over the last week, trading at $16.50 per share. The stock also remains down by about 47% year-to-date. While the sell-off this year comes as investors have been rotating away from high-growth, futuristic stocks, such as Luminar, into cyclical stocks to play the post-Covid re-opening, the recent decline is likely due to a broader selloff in the U.S. stock market and the mid-August public listing of AEye, another lidar player, which gives investors yet another option to gain exposure to the lidar market.

Although valuing a stock like Luminar is difficult, given that it hasn’t started meaningful commercial operations just yet, we think the risk-to-reward prospects are looking better at current levels. The automotive industry is pivoting at a faster than expected pace to electric vehicles due to mounting environmental concerns, and self-driving technology, which is increasingly viewed as a default feature in premium EVs, should stand to gain traction. Luminar projects that the total addressable market for its sensor and software solutions will stand at about $150 billion by 2030. Luminar might be well-positioned in this market, given that it has production program partnerships with OEMs including Volvo, Daimler Trucks, and China’s largest auto company SAIC. Luminar’s tech will also be standard on Volvo’s next-generation electric SUV. The company is also making progress with its production plans for its low-cost, mass-market Iris sensors, noting back in August that it had secured more than 85% of its series production supply chain. Luminar also acquired OptoGration, a company that designs and manufactures crucial InGaAs photodetector chips that go into the sensors.

Electric vehicles are the future of transportation, but picking the right EV stocks can be tricky. Investing in Electric Vehicle Component Supplier Stocks can be a good alternative to play the growth in the EV market.

[8/2/2021] Down 40% This Year, Is Luminar Stock A Buy?

Luminar, a company that develops lidar sensors for use in self-driving cars, has seen its stock decline by over 40% year-to-date and currently trades at levels of about $18 per share. The decline is driven by a couple of factors. Firstly, investors have been rotating away from high-growth, futuristic stocks, such as Luminar, into cyclical stocks to play the post-Covid re-opening. Secondly, a couple of other lidar stocks went public earlier this year, including Ouster and Innoviz, and this also likely reduced demand for Luminar stock, which was previously one of the few options available for investors looking to play the self-driving market.

Although valuing Luminar stock is somewhat tricky, given that it hasn’t started commercial operations yet, we think the risk-to-reward prospects are looking better following the big sell-off. Automakers are pivoting at a faster than expected pace to electric vehicles, and self-driving technology, which is increasingly viewed as a default feature in premium EVs, should stand to gain traction. Luminar has production program partnerships with OEMs including Volvo, Daimler Trucks, and China’s largest auto company SAIC besides holding another 14 opportunities at advanced stages. The company is also making progress with its commercialization plans, as it began producing sample versions of lidar sensors at a contract manufacturing facility in Monterrey, Mexico, with mass production likely to begin by the end of 2022. The company has also been securing its supply chain, announcing that it would acquire OptoGration, a company that designs and manufactures crucial InGaAs photodetector chips that go into Luminar’s mass-market Iris sensors.

Electric vehicles are the future of transportation, but picking the right EV stocks can be tricky. Investing in Electric Vehicle Component Supplier Stocks can be a good alternative to play the growth in the EV market.

[5/25/2021] Will Luminar Stock Benefit As Tesla Tests Lidar?

Luminar, a company that develops lidar sensors for use in self-driving cars, saw its stock move considerably late last week, following reports that EV behemoth Tesla was spotted testing Luminar’s sensors on its vehicles. This is interesting, considering that Tesla relies on a camera-based system for its autonomous-driving system, with CEO Elon Musk previously dismissing the use of laser-based sensors, produced by the likes of Luminar, as unnecessary. While having the world’s most valuable auto company test out hardware might appear positive for a fledgling company, it probably doesn’t mean too much for Luminar.

It isn’t clear if Tesla actually intends to use lidar in its vehicles, considering that the company has invested significantly in camera-based systems. The company has been equipping camera hardware as standard in every vehicle it has delivered since 2016, enabling users to unlock capabilities by paying for software. It’s more likely that Tesla was only benchmarking the lidar technology against its own camera-based system. There is also a possibility that Tesla is de-risking its reliance on a single technology, by testing self-driving capabilities using alternative hardware, given the high stakes involved in the self-driving race. Investors also seem to think this won’t have a long-term impact. While Luminar stock jumped by close to 10% last Thursday, following the news, it has largely given up the gains since then.

Electric vehicles are the future of transportation, but picking the right EV stocks can be tricky. Investing in Electric Vehicle Component Supplier Stocks can be a good alternative to play the growth in the EV market.

[3/31/2021] Luminar Updates

Luminar, a company that develops lidar sensors, has seen its stock decline by about 18% over the last week to about $24 per share. The stock also remains down by about 13% over the last month. The drop comes on the back of a broader sell-off in growth and tech stocks, and Luminar, which has yet to begin commercial production, has been badly impacted. That said, there have been a couple of positive developments from the company in recent weeks.

Firstly, the company is looking to transition from being just a lidar vendor into a full-stack autonomous vehicle player, with its Sentinel autonomous system developed in collaboration with Volvo’s subsidiary, Zenseact. The system will integrate Luminar’s perception software, its Iris lidar, and related components with Zenseact’s autonomous driving software. The full-stack system should be significantly more lucrative for the company, given the higher software-related value add.

Luminar is also entering the Chinese market, with SAIC, China’s largest automotive company, planning to integrate the Sentinel system to its “R Brand” vehicles. Luminar is also planning to establish an office in Shanghai to work with SAIC. China is one of the largest…



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